More people believe in conspiracy theories than you might think - 78.6% agree with at least one conspiratorial idea from the American Conspiratorial Thinking Scale | Cody Mello-Klein, Northeastern University Put on your tinfoil hats: New research finds that belief in conspiracy theories might be more common in the U.S. than you might think. A newly published survey conducted in the aftermath of the July 13, 2024, assassination attempt of then-presidential candidate Donald Trump details how conspiracy theories spread on both sides of the political spectrum—and how many people were quick to become believers. The study is published in the journal PNAS Nexus. "A fair number of people heard about and believe these conspiracies," says David Lazer, a university distinguished professor of political and computer science at Northeastern University and an author on the study. The survey was conducted as part of Lazer's large-scale CHIP50 project very soon after the assassination attempt. As a result, it's one of the best looks yet into how conspiracy theories spread, Lazer says. Almost immediately after the assassination attempt, conspiracy theories about the shooter's motive, political affiliation and backing from outside groups started spreading like wildfire on both sides of the political spectrum. "The 'neat' thing about this was … that we could anticipate that filling the vacuum would be conspiracies on both the left and the right," Lazer says. On the right, there was a theory that the shooting was arranged by Democratic operatives who did not want Trump to win the 2024 election. On the left, another theory started spreading that Republicans staged the assassination attempt to boost Trump's popularity and make him more sympathetic. Unsurprisingly, most of the respondents (95%) had heard about the assassination attempt. However, a significant number of people had also already been exposed to one of the conspiracy theories: 41% had heard the right-leaning conspiracy theory and 53% were aware of the left-leaning conspiracy. Of those who had heard the theory that the shooting was planned by Democratic operatives, 13% thought it was "very likely" to be true and 16% thought it was "somewhat" likely to be true. Meanwhile, 12% of the people who had heard it was planned by Republicans thought it was "very likely" to be true and 17% thought it was "somewhat likely." "It suggests lots of people heard this particular kind of misinformation really quickly, really fast and a non-trivial chunk of the population believes this," Lazer says. Since the event was still fresh in most people's minds, Lazer and his team were also able to track where or how respondents had heard about conspiracy theories. Of those who had heard about the right-leaning conspiracy theory, 53% said they found the information on social media, 32% through interpersonal connections and 28% on TV. A similar pattern emerged with those who heard the left-leaning conspiracy theory: 52% reported hearing about it on social media, 34% through interpersonal networks and 21% on TV. However, if someone hears about a theory, it doesn't necessarily mean they believe it. So, the researcher also dug through the data to see which avenues were most closely correlated with firmer beliefs in conspiracies. "We found that people disproportionately heard it on social media, but if we're talking about converting it into belief, that's more closely associated with personal connection," Lazer says. "If you heard it from someone you know, you were more likely to believe it. In the social sciences, we wouldn't necessarily say that's causal, but it sort of hints at pathways of influence certainly." Taken together with another survey that Lazer conducted with 124,000 people across all 50 states, Lazer's work indicates conspiracy theories might not just be the domain of the stereotypical tinfoil hatters. That work is published in the Journal of Affective Disorders. About 78.6% of respondents in the 50-state survey agreed with at least one conspiratorial idea posed by the four-question standard American Conspiratorial Thinking Scale; 19% agreed with all four. Lazer also found in that survey that conspiratorial thoughts were most prevalent among men ages 25–54, people who graduated from high school but did not receive a college degree and those with depressive symptoms, according to the survey. Lazer says it's imperative to study how these ideas spread because it plays into concerns about misinformation in the U.S. However, it also reveals a broader search for meaning and mistrust in American institutions on both sides of the political spectrum, he explains. "Making sense of this world is tough," Lazer says. "We're trying to make decisions and make sense of the world in ways that are consequential for us individually and collectively. It feels like in many ways that that process of distributed sense-making is breaking down in our country." Read more: