Is Monad receiving "too high expectations" from the community?
the community joined the public sale on @coinbase at FDV ≈ $2.5B.
the pre-market is reflecting FDV ≈ $3.5B.
→ profit +40% before TGE, despite the very weak market.
compare Monad's fdv on tge with some other Layer1 projects:
• Aptos: $9B
• Sui: $9.4B
• Plasma: $8.7B
• Berachain: $5.9B
• Story: $1.95B
@monad is in the middle.
fdv ≈ $3.5B is not as low as Story but has not reached the peak group like Aptos or Sui.
circulating supply is the most important point to pay attention to.
other L1s usually unlock low:
• Aptos ≈13%
• Sui ≈5.2%
• Plasma ≈18%
• Berachain ≈5%
@monad unlocks ≈49% on the day of tge.
→ circulating supply ≈49.33B $MON.
with such a large float, the first day mcap reflects the real value more.
if we take the pre-market price of $0.035.
→ the expected mcap ≈ $1.726B.
this is actually high compared to the current market level, although the overall FDV is much lower than other L1s.
is $3.5B fdv big in the current crashing market?
(1) compared to L1 top: not big
(2) compared to current market: average
(3) with float near 50%: this level is reasonable, not virtual
(4) with current sentiment: shows that cash flow is still expected in Monad
(5) profit around 40% for public sale: bid-side signal is stable
summary
fdv ≈$3.5B is the middle valuation, not too tight nor too low.
the most different thing about @monad is that the first day float is very large so the price reflects real supply and demand.
the story after tge will depend on trading volume, stake demand and dev activity level when mainnet goes into practice.
looking forward @keoneHD and @monad team.
> the bigger the airdrop
> the higher the risk
keep safe for the $MON airdrop on Monad's mainnet day.
tomorrow you can get a lot of tokens from @monad or you can also lose everything with just one wrong click.
1) junk tokens, scam public-sale
the mainnet is about to launch and so are scam projects.
models you will encounter ↓
• fake tokens inflated by bots
• “pre-buy” to receive large allocations
• projects that create FOMO and then open low-quality public sales
• anonymous teams but draw “cool” roadmaps, answer as if they are real
→ you just received an airdrop, easy to FOMO. Just one wrong command, $MON evaporates immediately.
only follow projects mentioned by @monad ecosystem, have real developers, or are confirmed by a large community.
2) fake claim links, fake websites, dangerous sign-request popups
this is the fastest source of losing wallets.
common attack types ↓
• fake claim link from clone account
• dm bot invites claim earlier than official
• website interface 99% similar to Monad
• popup asking to sign “upgrade permission”
you sign your wallet on the scam link → lose all $MON.
note ↓
> only claim via the link published by Monad
> do not sign any request requiring high permissions
> do not connect main wallet to strange link
> test everything with secondary wallet first
3) junk NFT, fake collection, free mint trap
scam NFT projects are springing up like mushrooms.
common pitfalls ↓
• free mints require unusual fees
• fake collections are 90% similar to the original
• collections with crazy prices and no team
• require “unlock permission” before minting
should ↓
> prioritize free mints from reputable projects
> only mint on Magic Eden or reputable markets
> check the contract, creator, volume, real comments
in short
you focus on Monad for a long time.
don’t lose it just because of a link, a trash project or a hasty sign.
during this period ↓
• stay alert to all kinds of FOMO
• wait for an official announcement from @monad before taking action
• keep your wallet safe > earn a few more percent of profit
i got full $MON allocation.
can I go to the moon?
1,827
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