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Original title: "Bitcoin plummets, 900 million liquidations: a prelude to the September curse? 》 Original source: BitpushNews On Monday, the crypto market was more volatile. Bitcoin fell below the $110,000 mark in the short term, hitting a low of $109,324, the lowest since early July, and Ethereum fell below $4,400 in the short term, down nearly 8% in 24 hours. This round of decline triggered large-scale liquidations across the market: according to CoinGlass data, at the time of writing, the 24-hour liquidation volume exceeded $900 million, with Ethereum bulls losing about $322 million and Bitcoin bulls losing $207 million. The market rippled quickly, with mainstream altcoins under pressure across the board: Solana plummeted by more than 8% in a single day, XRP fell by 6%, and small and mid-cap tokens such as PENDLE, LDO, PENGU recorded double-digit declines, with a single-day decline of up to 13%. Historical Laws: The "Curse" of September Investor caution is not without water, with CoinGlass's statistics showing that September was one of the worst months for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The chart above compares the actual rise and fall of BTC and ETH in September from 2017 to 2024, and it can be seen: · BTC has been negative in September for most years, with only 2023 (+3.91%) and 2024 (+7.29%) recording gains. · ETH's September declines are usually even greater, with 2017 (–21.65%), 2020 (–17.08%), and 2022 (–14.49%) all significantly underperforming BTC. · Only 2019 (ETH +5.72% vs BTC –13.38%), 2023 and 2024 saw stronger ETH performance. This "September curse" has appeared in previous bull market cycles. In 2013, 2017, and 2021, Bitcoin experienced a sharp correction in September after a strong summer rally. Analyst view: Short-term trend reversal Well-known analyst Benjamin Cowen noted that the strength of July-August tends to reverse in September, and Bitcoin is likely to fall to the bull market support zone around $110,000. He also warned that Ethereum could briefly reach new highs, but then fell by 20–30%, and altcoins could even fall by 30–50%. Another active market analyst, Doctor Profit, adds a more pessimistic judgment from a macro and psychological perspective. He believes that the Fed's rate cut in September is not so much a positive thing as a trigger for uncertainty. Unlike the "soft landing rate cut" in 2024, this may be a "major turning point" in the true sense, triggering a simultaneous correction in the stock market and crypto market. At the price level, he also emphasized that there is still a CME gap of 93k–95k in the BTC chart, where a lot of liquidity is concentrated, while retail investors are generally in the 110k–120k range or even higher. To wash out these "weak hands", the price must fall into their "biggest pain point range". In his strategy, he stated that he has gradually reduced his positions in BTC and ETH spot and instead placed short-term short positions. The latest fund flow data shows that the heat of ETFs is cooling down. According to SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.17 billion in outflows last week, the second-largest weekly net outflow in history. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of $237.7 million, the third-largest in history. This shows that institutional funds have turned to wait-and-see in stages, weakening the support of the spot market. On-chain data also reveals structural signals. Glassnode noted that all Bitcoin holder groups "have collectively entered the distribution phase," a consistency that highlights that the market is experiencing widespread selling pressure. Ethereum fell back after hitting a new high of $4,946, and the MVRV metric rose to 2.15, meaning investors held more than 2 times the unrealized gains on average. Historically, this level has been similar to December 2020 and March 2024, both preceded by sharp volatility and profit-taking. Macro factors: Fed and interest rate risks The uncertainty of the macro environment further exacerbated market tensions. On Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at a possible rate cut in September, which once stimulated market optimism, but both Cowen and Doctor Profit warned that interest rate cuts are not necessarily good, but may lead to an upward trend in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, thereby suppressing risk assets. This is somewhat similar to the situation in September 2023, when rate cuts instead marked bond market lows and subsequent yields soared. In addition, Benjamin Cowen also pointed out that recent Producer Price Index (PPI) data showed that inflation was "hotter than expected", which undoubtedly put additional pressure on the market. With inflationary pressures not fully eased, the Fed's policy pivot could trigger new market turmoil. Outlook and conclusions Looking at historical patterns, analyst views, and the macro environment, we can see that September has put several pressures on the crypto market: · Seasonal downturn – historically recording significant losses on average in September; · Macro uncertainty – Fed policy could be a watershed moment in the market; · Imbalance in the capital structure - institutional capital outflows, retail investors chasing high levels; · On-chain selling pressure intensifies - all coin holders enter the distribution, and whale transactions disrupt the market. Although Cowen and Doctor Profit have different judgments on the magnitude of the adjustment, the consensus is that September is not a moment for the bull market to turn upward, but a test that must be faced. However, from a longer-term perspective, this purge may also be a necessary step for the bull market to continue, and the market needs to clear overheated positions in the "biggest pain point area" to make room for the next round of gains. If sufficient cleaning, BTC may still hit new highs in subsequent cycles, and the long-term upward logic of ETH will not change as a result. Original link