4h ago
Time to make a technical recap about the state of the market.
During the last considerations we were prior to the impulsive move that led to a new high and, at that moment, there was so much uncertainty but if you remember, we were tracking a nice HTF bearish Wolfe wave that fortunately, played out: bringing us to the top at 126K and a clean warning sign since we had the USDT D at demand:
A brutal collapse then followed and, besides of the logical correction, we also saw a massive liquidation event annihilating the majority of market participants.
It's been a while since I was discussing the tweezer top and HTF distribution, so some signs were clearly on the table (despite the brutality of the move)
However, let's see what can be potentially on the table from a technical standpoint.
BTC has been violently rejected from the 116K breaker finding no acceptance above POC, meaning that the market didn't consider it as a local fair value. (pivotal point, reclaim and the structure returns bullish)
This is not a common break because it potentially sets the case for a clean structural shift where the 107.200$ becomes the most relevant low to defend on the weekly.
Confirming it would mean heading ruining the structure targeting lower prices with 90K as bare minimum.
However, we're not at HTF untested demand (monthly range, multi-week demand) and independently, being bearish here from a R/R doesn't make sense in my opinion.
It's pure understanding of market dynamics since BTC, if it wants to save the trend, has no business in melting this zone.
Now, conversely, the USDT D is trying to breakout above the M supply therefore October closure will be a pivotal point for the market.
If we close the monthly in this way, it's likely that we will use the supply as a breaker targeting the 6.50% area.
However, in my idea and experience, being bearish at HTF demand is counterproductive.
Especially if we pair it with a dose of bearish sentiment.
25/09/2025
Genuine considerations about the state of the market:
I discussed quite a few times about the HTF distribution on BTC (which was coinciding with an HTF accumulation on USDT D) in tandem with T1 showing a clean SFP + tweezer top, posts that you can find here if you want to read them or you missed on them:
1)
2)
Following the reads, we also saw a lot of altcoins continuing their bullish swings till HTF supply areas/HTF EQ (plenty of examples like SOL, AVAX, XLM, DOGE) and those have represented solid TPs together with the plan on USDT D shared here, step by step trying to help you:
The most "hammered" question however, is: "And now? Is it over?"
There are reasons to be bearish because BTC didn't close above the key high at 117.440$, thus not confirming an HTF MSS so, until 117.971$ (new local high formed) isn't getting reclaimed, the structure remains precarious with possibility of breaking lower and therefore having a contagious effect on all assets.
However (and this is probably the most important part) there's still a chance to save the current trend and this is being represented by the weekly high at 4.61% on USDT D.
Reclaiming that swing on a weekly basis (with a convincing BOS + closure) will mean engulfing more than 2 months of price action shifting the structure in a clear bullish one, therefore seeing bearish territory for a while (if not a bear market) and that's where I will start to look for bigger shorts.
However, at the moment, we tapped 4.64% which is one of the local most important areas for seeing a potential reversal, so this level must be carefully monitored.
Above? The monthly supply that will likely provide a nice relief across the board but it depends on how it will be taken.
If fast without reclaiming the structure or post HTF closure, a complete different situation.
There are several long entries that I'm eyeing slightly lower now, I'm definitely watching for them. (relief or HTF swings to be determined)
At the moment, I'm still leaning neutral bullish until I see clean signs of full shift.
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