刚才在群里聊接下来的 Alpha 都在哪,复盘下来,大机会其实还是集中在两个“万亿级”赛道: 1. PerpDex / 预测市场(交易所,二者可能合二为一) 2. 稳定币(支付) 如果你看懂了 $HOOD ,你就会对 PerpDex 和预测市场无限乐观。 这是人性的刚需,也是末法之日对普通人最后的救赎。 关于 $WLFI ,其实逻辑很直白:短线博的是流量和某些“特殊资金通道”的溢价,长线依然是稳定币的叙事。 当然,如果要配置大仓位和长周期,Circle 这种合规巨头肯定是首选。 “好赛道的龙八,也比差赛道的龙二好。” 在 Web2 投资里,我们管这个叫 TAM (Total Addressable Market) 决定论。 这就好比在 AI 赛道,你哪怕投中一个排名靠后的“套壳”公司,回报率可能都吊打一个夕阳产业里的“行业老二”。 选对电梯,比在楼梯上狂奔重要得多。
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